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1. It was the first week that the Dollar closed weaker against all other major currencies, losing nearly 2% of its value versus GBP and falling more than 1% against AUD and NZD. Traders are now carful to assess how the USD will behave until the end of the year, as we approach the last FED rate meeting where a 70% chance of a rate hike is priced in already. Noteworthy is the fact, that despite decent US data, the last week (retail sales and consumer confidence) the USD was unable to rally past other currencies, indicating a loss of confidence as to the future pace of rate hikes (only one priced in for 2018)
2. As we enter this week, the GBP will face important news. After falling sharply from the 20 of September where GBP peaked over 1.36 VS the USD, the Pair has rebounded since then to 1.33+, on expectations that the BoE will raise rates, and that the UK will be granted a 2 yr. Brexit transition period. This week is an important one, as the BoE will release rates, inflation, employment and consumer spending numbers.
3. The euro was on the defensive early on Monday after Austria’s election and on concerns over Catalonia’s confrontation with Madrid, though the dollar also lacked momentum after soft U.S. inflation data. Still, the fall in the common currency was limited as investors expect the European Central Bank to unveil a plan later this month to start tapering its bond buying scheme.
4. Gold prices edged up to $1304 in Asia on Monday with tension in the Middle East supporting risk demand as Baghdad moved troops into the oil-rich Kirkuk region where the Kurdish Regional Government has a stronghold and has mulled a push for independence opposed by Iraq, Iran and Turkey. Last week, gold prices rose on Friday as weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data added to doubts over the Federal Reserve’s plans to raise interest rates once more this year.
5. Oil markets jumped on concerns over potential renewed U.S. sanctions against Iran as well as conflict in Iraq, while an explosion at a U.S. oil rig and reduced exploration activity supported prices there. U.S. President Donald Trump last Friday refused to certify that Tehran is complying with the accord even though international inspectors say it is.
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Spanish PM Mariano Rajoy laid down an ultimatum to Catalan President Carles Puigdemont: clarify if you declared independence. If so, Madrid was ready to suspense the autonomy and impose direct rule. EUR/USD is slipping to support. The answer came just before the 8:00 GMT deadline but it isn’t a clear binary response. The letter states [...]
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The US dollar index erased October’s strong trading gains and fell below its key 200-week moving average last week, as a less dovish than expected FOMC Meeting Minutes and worse than expected US inflation data pushed the greenback lower.
Inside the Fed Minutes, Federal Reserve officials reiterated that they saw the US economy expanding at a steady rate, and indicated that another US interest rate hike was almost certain later this year. However, the US dollar moved sharply lower, as Federal Open Market Committee members expressed ‘real concern’ about persistently below trend inflation in the US economy. With some Fed members noting further a rate increase ‘may not be warranted’ and also debated over whether low US wage growth and price pressures could turn into a more long-term problem.
The US dollar came under further pressure on Friday, as US CPI figures came in worse than expected, whilst US Retail Sales figures came in as expected, at 0.4%, which seemed to disappointed investors. In the 12 months through September, core CPI increased 1.7%, while the month-on-month-figures came in worse than expected, growing just 0.1%, which was softer than the expected 0.2% increase. The persistent modest readings in the core CPI are likely to further worry Federal Reserve officials who have been engaged in a vigorous debate on the path of US inflation. US policy makers preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures, price index excluding food and energy, has consistently undershot the US Central Bank’s 2% target for more than five years.
The market reaction last week saw the greenback move lower against all its major counterparts. Commodity related currencies advanced sharply, with the AUDUSD pair being the stand-out, moving towards $0.7900 after holding support above the $0.7700 handle.
The euro staged a relief rally last week against the US dollar also, as Catalan President Carles Puigdemont pulled Catalonia back from the brink of a full-blown unilateral declaration of independence, after requesting a last-minute series of negotiations to resolve the crisis with the Spanish government. The single currency looked past the long-term risks associated with a break-up between Catalonia and Madrid, and instead focused on the near-term reprieve. The EURUSD pair moved back towards the 1.1900 level, after previously trading as low as 1.1669 on 6 October.
The value of one bitcoin reached a new all-time high of $5,856 last week, as reports surfaced that China may not ban the virtual currency. Traders are now poised to see if the price of one bitcoin can break above the $6,000 as bitcoin miners scramble to access the limited amount of digital currency. Last month, regulators banned cryptocurrency exchanges with some of the largest in the country shutting down operations. Reversing this would bring the world’s second-largest economy back online.
The British pound was increasingly volatile last week against the US dollar, as UK and EU Brexit updates and speculative rumours caused sterling to spike lower, but later recover its losses. This week, the pair may again become volatile as UK inflation figures are released ahead of the upcoming Bank of England interest rate decision. Further reports that the European Union’s chief negotiator has offered the UK a further two-year period for Brexit, if the UK can meet its financial obligations, helped the GBPUSD. The pair recovered towards its key 100-week moving average, at 1.3323, after previously sinking to 1.3029 on 5 October.
This week we see the release of retail sales, industrial production and inflation figures from the Chinese economy. We also have third fiscal quarter GDP numbers coming out from China, which are expected to show growth of 6.8% year-on-year. Later in the week we have September CPI inflation figures for the Eurozone and Canadian economy. We also see the release of key housing data for the United States economy for the month of September.
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Welcome to the weekly outlook starting this Monday 16 October. We’ll be looking at the week’s key economic events on the financial calendar covering Monday to Thursday. This is shaping up to be an action-packed week full of key economic indicator releases across the globe. We’ll be getting inflation data out of the UK and Europe, industrial production and housing from the US, jobs data from Australia and GDP figures for China.
Event: UK Consumer Price Index
Date: Tuesday 17 October 2017 at 08:30 GMT
Markets affected: GBP/USD, EUR/GBP
Trending hashtags: #gbp, #cpi, #inflation
With inflation in August hitting a five year high at 2.9% many will be closely following Monday’s report on key inflation data in the form of the consumer price index. A falling UK pound has left its mark with higher petrol and clothing prices. The CPI figure will be closely watched by the Bank of England as it considers its next move regarding interest rates.
Event: EU Consumer Price Index (September)
Date: Tuesday 17 October 2017 at 10:00 GMT
Markets affected: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
Trending hashtags: #eur, #cpi, #inflation
August’s CPI for the Eurozone came in at a 0.3% month on month change and 1.5% on an annualized basis. Core CPI, which strips away volatile food and energy figures, was also 0.3% for last August and saw 1.1% year on year growth. Inflation is still a little below the 2% target for the European Central Bank’s liking but it is unlikely to stop the planned reduction of their asset buying programme.
Event: US Industrial Production (September)
Date: Tuesday 17 October 2017 at 13:15 GMT
Markets affected: EUR/USD, USD/JPY
Trending hashtags: #usd, #industry
Industrial production in August fell by -0.9% against the previous month due to activity being stalled by the hurricanes that ripped through the US. Expectation is for the industry to get back on track for September and increase by 0.3% as rebuilding will be needed due to the destruction caused by the extreme weather.
Event: EU Extraordinary Economic Summit
Date: Wednesday 18 October 2017 at 07:00 GMT
Markets affected: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP
Trending hashtags: #eur, #ecb
Eurozone leaders will gather on Wednesday to discuss concerns and issues facing the common region. Analysts are expecting that Brexit and Catalan’s drive for independence will be part of the discussions. The euro will be looking for mentions of further monetary tightening before it makes moves in any direction.
Event: US Housing Data (September)
Date: Wednesday 18 October 2017 at 12:30 GMT
Markets affected: EUR/USD, USD/JPY
Trending hashtags: #usd, #housing
Key housing data is due out of the US on Wednesday with Building Permits and Housing Starts reports. There were 1.300 million building permits last month and expectations are for 1.255 million for September. In August, housing starts saw a 1.180 million change and expectations for September are for 1.175 million. Housing data is important as it influences job growth and the overall GDP of the nation.
Event: Australia Employment Data (September)
Date: Thursday 19 October 2017 at 00:30 GMT
Markets affected: AUD/USD, AUD/NZD
Trending hashtags: #aud, #jobs
Last month’s employment data for Australia was much better than expected and gave a boost to the aussie. 54,200 new jobs were added in August far surpassing July’s 27,900 change and beating expectations. Expectations for September are for 23,800 jobs to be added. Unemployment for August remained pat with July’s figure of 5.6%, just as the markets were expecting. The Australian economy has been struggling on a number of levels but positive employment figures can only bode well for the future.
Event: China Gross Domestic Product (Q3)
Date: Thursday 12 October 2017 at 02:00 GMT
Markets affected: AUD/USD, CNH/USD
Trending hashtags: #cnh, #gdp
Last quarter the Chinese economy expanded by 1.7% on a quarterly basis and showed 6.9% growth on an annualised basis. The second quarter of the year showed the strongest growth for the economy for almost two years and surpassed the Government expectation of 6.5% growth for 2017. Analysts are expecting the third quarter of this year to see 1.4% growth quarterly and 6.7% improvement on this time last year.
Key Highlights ETH price is trading higher and is currently attempting a break above $346 against the US Dollar. There is a new connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $336 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via SimpleFX). The price might attempt an upside break towards $352 in the near term. … Continue reading Ethereum Price Technical Analysis – ETH/USD Poised for Further Gains
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By Ambar Warrick
Oct 16 (Reuters) – Most Asian currencies ticked up against the dollar on Monday, which softened after disappointing U.S. inflation data on Friday undercut the greenback.
The dollar index was little changed, lacking momentum after having posted its first weekly fall last week as underlying inflation remained muted despite a jump in U.S. consumer prices.
“Markets have apparently found a happy medium after all the tax reform and U.S. economic data had markets pricing in a quicker pace of Fed normalisation, underpinning the broader USD,” Stephen Innes, Head of Trading Asia at FX broker OANDA said in a note.
Stephen Innes, Head of Trading in Asia-Pacific, OANDA shares his views with BFM Radio
U.S. stocks ended at record highs last week as investors bet on another positive earnings season as shown by some corporates that released their numbers recently such as Bank of America and JP Morgan.
Corporate earnings aside, readings on inflation and retail sales numbers that were released last Friday missed expectations. But just yesterday, Fed Chief Janet Yellen gave a bright outlook for the U.S. economy and for inflation prospects in coming months. This suggests that the central bank will soon resume raising interest rates to reflect the strengthening economy.
What is Stephen’s take on this?
He also talks about how the markets are focused on the bigger picture right now – the inflation outlook in the US and Fed Chair replacement.
We also chat about how the markets would be impacted should there be an interest rate hike in the UK.
Presented by Joyce Goh
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