Oil Traders Get Ready To Sing O(PEC) Vienna

Vienna readies for OPEC decision day as markets see a final shuffling of the positioning chairs before today’s fireworks.

Crude oil had a very choppy session overnight as the street chased its tail back and forth on rumours and headlines ahead of today’s official OPEC meeting in Vienna. Both Brent and WTI traded in 2.50% ranges, but as the dust settled both contracts closed only slightly down on the day. Both were falling 30 cents to 63.05 and 57.25 respectively.

Asia has unsurprisingly, taken a look at the overnight ranges and concluded that things are best left well alone until where hear from OPEC and Non-OPEC later today. Both contracts trading uncaged in the early part of the session.

The technical outlook paints a somewhat darker picture though. Brent broke its short-term trendline on Monday and never recaptured it. It has now formed a formidable series of double tops above building strong resistance. WTI held its two-month trendline support overnight, barely staying above it this morning. The takeaway from this is that a nine-month extension of the production cut deal is priced in and anything less from Vienna today could see some uncontrolled spills in prices as long positioning runs for the exit door.

Brent

Brent Crude has double tops at 64.00, 64.45 and 64.85 to overcome now forming a serious zone of resistance to further rallies. Support is at 62.00, followed by the two-month trendline at 61.45 and then the crucial multiple daily lows 61.25 level.

Brent Crude Daily

WTI

WTI has resistance at yesterday’s high at 58.25 followed by its double top at 58.85. Much more importantly, it lies just above its two-month trendline support at 56.80. Yesterday’s low at 56.60 is just behind to offer interim support, but after that, the charts open up with no technical support until 54.80.

WTI Crude Daily

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Precious Metals and Commodities Weekly 8th November

Our weekly journey through the precious metals and commodities CFD’s available with OANDA. Jeffrey analyses each using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.

Its been all action this week as crude oil maintains its charge higher as Brent and WTI make 2-year highs. This has also woken Natural Gas from its long slumber and dragged base metals higher.

Copper continues to impress along with base metals in general.

Precious metals also rallied as Saudi Arabia rounds up princes and ministers. Gold, silver and platinum all staged dead cat bounces, but the rallies were underwhelming and likely to be short-term in duration.

With the world economy seemingly firing on all cylinders, stocks at record levels, OPEC’s production cuts apparently turning the black gold tide on oil, the question is will the music stop? Most especially in oil, the scene of much heartache for traders over the last few years. Jeff attempts to answer this question. (spoiler: yes and no)

The soft remained sort of, soft this week. The agricultural CFD’s have been unmoved by the hard commodities rallies. The exception being our old friend soybeans which is showing some signs of life again.
Gold 0:0:00, Silver 00:04:15, Platinum 00:06:15, Palladium 00:08:35, Copper 00:10:40, Natural Gas 00:13:10, Brent Oil 00:14:40, WTI Oil 00:18:00, Corn 00:20:00, Soybeans 00:22:15, Sugar 00:23:40, Wheat 00:24:45

The post Precious Metals and Commodities Weekly 8th November appeared first on Forex news – Binary options.

Precious Metals and Commodities Weekly 8th November

Our weekly journey through the precious metals and commodities CFD’s available with OANDA. Jeffrey analyses each using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.

Its been all action this week as crude oil maintains its charge higher as Brent and WTI make 2-year highs. This has also woken Natural Gas from its long slumber and dragged base metals higher.

Copper continues to impress along with base metals in general.

Precious metals also rallied as Saudi Arabia rounds up princes and ministers. Gold, silver and platinum all staged dead cat bounces, but the rallies were underwhelming and likely to be short-term in duration.

With the world economy seemingly firing on all cylinders, stocks at record levels, OPEC’s production cuts apparently turning the black gold tide on oil, the question is will the music stop? Most especially in oil, the scene of much heartache for traders over the last few years. Jeff attempts to answer this question. (spoiler: yes and no)

The soft remained sort of, soft this week. The agricultural CFD’s have been unmoved by the hard commodities rallies. The exception being our old friend soybeans which is showing some signs of life again.
Gold 0:0:00, Silver 00:04:15, Platinum 00:06:15, Palladium 00:08:35, Copper 00:10:40, Natural Gas 00:13:10, Brent Oil 00:14:40, WTI Oil 00:18:00, Corn 00:20:00, Soybeans 00:22:15, Sugar 00:23:40, Wheat 00:24:45

The post Precious Metals and Commodities Weekly 8th November appeared first on Forex news – Binary options.

Precious Metals and Commodities Weekly 8th November

Our weekly journey through the precious metals and commodities CFD’s available with OANDA. Jeffrey analyses each using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.

Its been all action this week as crude oil maintains its charge higher as Brent and WTI make 2-year highs. This has also woken Natural Gas from its long slumber and dragged base metals higher.

Copper continues to impress along with base metals in general.

Precious metals also rallied as Saudi Arabia rounds up princes and ministers. Gold, silver and platinum all staged dead cat bounces, but the rallies were underwhelming and likely to be short-term in duration.

With the world economy seemingly firing on all cylinders, stocks at record levels, OPEC’s production cuts apparently turning the black gold tide on oil, the question is will the music stop? Most especially in oil, the scene of much heartache for traders over the last few years. Jeff attempts to answer this question. (spoiler: yes and no)

The soft remained sort of, soft this week. The agricultural CFD’s have been unmoved by the hard commodities rallies. The exception being our old friend soybeans which is showing some signs of life again.
Gold 0:0:00, Silver 00:04:15, Platinum 00:06:15, Palladium 00:08:35, Copper 00:10:40, Natural Gas 00:13:10, Brent Oil 00:14:40, WTI Oil 00:18:00, Corn 00:20:00, Soybeans 00:22:15, Sugar 00:23:40, Wheat 00:24:45

The post Precious Metals and Commodities Weekly 8th November appeared first on Forex news – Binary options.

Gold Coat-Tails Commodities Higher

Gold coat-tailed the commodities rally overnight to post a one percent gain and close at 1281.70, unwinding all of Friday’s losses.

The mass arrests of prominent officials and businesspeople in Saudi Arabia appears to have spooked the markets with oil in particular and base metals all producing spectacular gains.

Asia has seen profit-taking set in after the overnight rallies and gold has fallen three dollars to 1278.50 at the midpoint of Asia’s session. As with other rallies driven by the geopolitics of late, we suspect this one may well be shortlived once the initial noise has died down.

The precious metals market is also ignoring president Trump’s visit to the Asia region. Given that most statements will be regarded as more of the same or political rhetoric, this is unsurprising. It would likely take some physical action by North Korea such as a missile test during the Presidential visit to ratchet up gold’s safe haven premium.

From a technical perspective, gold regained its 100-day moving average overnight at 1277.00 which forms initial intra-day support. A break of this level opens up the potential for a more significant drop to the trend line support at 1265.50. Following this is the long-term support zone between the 200-day moving average at 1262.25 and the October low at 1260.00. This region remains a must hold for bullish traders, and we continue to believe a break could lead to some possibly substantial long liquidation.

Resistance is firstly at 1284.60 followed by a formidable daily double top at 1291.60. Given the dollar remains firm, we will more than likely need an escalation in geopolitical risk so sustain golds momentum for an attack on the latter resistance.

Gold Daily

As the dust settles on the overnight moves gold continues to range between its 38.20% and 61.80% Fibonacci retracement levels at 1299.00 and 1263.00, as it has since the beginning of October.

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The Charge of the Light Crude Brigade

Saudi’s Arabia’s “purge” leads crude’s geopolitical surge but traders should watch out of technical indicator cannon fire.

Oil’s charge of the light crude brigade continued unabated overnight, with both Brent and WTI galloping 3.0% higher and even Natural Gas shaking of its multi-month lethargy, rising 3.50% in New York trading. Geopolitics continues to drive price surges, which is unsurprising when mainstream media use words such as “purge” to describe the situation in Saudi Arabia.

 

Saudi Arabia’s apparent purge aside, the rally comes against the backdrop of potential disruption of supplies in Iraqi Kurdistan, Libya and also forgotten in the noise, Venezuela. Venezuela appears to be nearing a default endgame at last with the country struggling with quality control issues of its already modest and declining exports. Much of Venezuela’s production is destined for U.S. refineries, and this should be supportive for WTI even if the Saudi Arabia situation calms down.

 

With an OPEC and Non-OPEC production cut extension seemingly a done deal and Nigeria indicating its support, all would seem rosy for oil’s short-term price momentum to continue. The original charge of the light brigade did not end well, however, and we continue to caution that the short-term technical indicators are now severely overbought on both contracts. Geopolitics can override these of course but like the original charge, the longer it went on, the uglier it became. In this case, crude could become vulnerable to an increasingly aggressive correction without some consolidation of the recent rallies.

 

Brent spot is trading unchanged at 64.25 this morning with initial resistance at the overnight high of 64.60. Its nearest long-term target at these levels remains the 69.00 regions. With oil running on vapours, support appears at 64.25 followed by a lot of clear air until the triple daily bottom at 60.00.

Brent Crude Daily

 

WTI spot is at 57.10, the overnight high at 57.40 being initial resistance, the bottom of a mid-2015 multimonth congestion zone that extends to 61.00 which is the next technical target. Support is at 55.50 followed by a series of multi-day lows around 53.60 and also today, the ascending trendline support that has held all pullbacks since the beginning of October. 53.60 is a critical support level with a break suggesting that the charge of the light crude brigade will be running into some severe cannon fire.

WTI Daily

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Saudi Arabia Jitters Reprieve Gold and Silver

Gold and Silver are looking shaky as the week starts, with Saudi Arabia’s new broom looking as if it will provide only temporary relief.

Gold

The U.S. dollar reigned supreme following Friday’s U.S. employment data which was bad news for gold, as it wilted and fell from its highs at 1280.60 to 1265.50 at one stage, before climbing off the canvas to close at 1270.00. The dollars march has nipped gold’s incipient rally in the bud and traders will be nervously looking at critical long-term support below as the week gets underway.

Gold spiked lower again on its open to 1266.00, just above Friday’s low before recovering to an unchanged 1270.00 by mid-morning. Gold seems to have found some safe-haven support after the initial sell-off as the street nervously watches developments in Saudi Arabia over the weekend following the mass arrests of prominent citizens on suspected corruption charges.

Gold has resistance at today’s high of 1271.00 followed by the 100-day moving average at 1276.50 and then Friday’s high at 1280.60. The downside will attract more of traders attention though, with initial support between 1265.50 and 1266.00. It is followed closely by the 200-day moving average at 1261.80 and then the crucial long-term support line at 1260.00. Given the extended long futures positioning still in the market, this may we be the line in the sand for many of those positions with the exit door beckoning should it break.

Gold Daily

Silver

Although still out-performing gold relatively, Friday’s dollar rally saw silver fail at the 200-day moving average for the third day in a row. It is now perched precariously above multimonth support and like gold seems to be gaining only a temporary reprieve from the weekend Saudi Arabia news.

Looking at the technicals, silver has failed yet again at the 200-day moving average (DMA), today at 17.1900. Lurking just above this level is a daily double top at 17.2945 ahead of the October 16th high of 17.4700.

Silver closed just below the 100-DMA at 16.8720 on Friday in a bearish turn of events. Its four-cent gain in Asia sees it just above here at 16.88425, but the rally has a definite dead cat bounce look to it. Friday’s 17.7845 low is initial support before critical trendline support at 17.7200. A break of this clear support line, dating back to early July, could spark some stop-loss selling.

Silver Daily

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Gold and Silver Trying To Avoid Buying The (Non) Farm

Gold and Silver continue attempting to base as a Tokyo holiday squashes Asian volatility ahead of tonights crucial U.S. employment data.

The aviation days of my youth featured some colourful sayings from the Air Force flight line. One of them being  “try not to buy the farm today Office Cadet Halley.” This was a charming way of saying, don’t make a smoking hole in a farmers field with the government’s very expensive aeroplane, we have just signed you off in to do solo aerobatics. To this day I am not sure whether my instructor was more concerned about losing the aeroplane or me, but both Gold and Silver are attempting to avoid the same fate today. This time in the shape of the Non-Farm Payrolls where a good number could see dollar strength and result in gold and silver “buying the farm.”

Gold

Gold spiked to 1284.00 overnight as Jerome Powell was confirmed as the new Federal Reserve Chairman. The gains were short-lived though, and gold gave all of the gains back to close one dollar higher at 1276.00.

Nevertheless, gold has continued to make a series of higher lows on a daily basis as it has remained bid in Asia this week, driven by Chinese retail buying. With the Shanghai Gold Exchange arbitrage clearly at attractive levels on this interest, this has ensured that the price action in gold remains constructive from a technical perspective.

Gold closed at its 100-day moving average and initial support of 1276.00 in New York and had climbed $1.50 in early Asia trading to 1277.50, most likely on more Chinese retail buying interest. Below this, support appears at 1273.00 followed by 1263.50, the 200-day moving average at 1261.40 and then the critical 1260.00 level. This is also near to the 61.80 Fibonacci retracements with the converging of all these technical factors in one area underlining this region’s importance. Resistance is at the overnight high of 1284.00 followed by the double top at 1291.50.

Gold’s fate into the next week will be decided by the U.S. Non-Farm Payroll data tonight with the street expecting a monster 315,000 increase. Meeting expectations could see the dollar strengthen possibly nipping gold’s recovery in the bud. Conversely, a significant miss to the downside should be supportive of gold as the dollar weakens.

Gold Daily

Silver

Silver continues to lead gold to the upside having traded more positively over the past couple of weeks. Overall it’s corrective sell-off has been much more shallow than golds. It has been attempting to base again in its long-term Fibonacci retracement box between the 38.2 and 50.0% levels whose boundaries are 16.9550 and 16.1750.

Overnight silver managed to consolidate further its gains from Wednesday, finishing unchanged at 17.0500. Today’s session has been somewhat moribund with Tokyo on holiday meaning that Silver remains almost unchanged at 17.0450. We expect volatility to pick up as the Non-Farm data draws nearer in the New York session.

Silver is flirting with its 200-day moving average and initial resistance at 17.1915 which is followed by a double top at 17.2950 and then October’s high of 17.4750. Nearby support is at yesterdays low of 17.0340. A break of this level implies a deeper correction to its 100-day moving average at 19.8700 and p[ossibly as far as the 16.6000 could be on the cards.

Silver Daily

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Crude Continues To Fly High Ignoring The RSI

A Tokyo holiday has meant a quiet session in Asia for crude oil as it ignores overbought technical indicators.

Crude oil meandered higher in a  subdued session overnight as the market awaits key U.S. employment data this afternoon. Oil was supported by rhetoric from Saudi Arabia and Iraq that OPEC compliance had been pleasing and that they supported an extension of the production cut agreement through to December 2018. Venezuela’s announcement that it was attempting to restructure all of its foreign debt should continue to be price supportive as well as its almost inevitable default looms ever closer. This may cause supply disruptions from the South American country further tightening supplies.

We continue to advise caution, however. Although both Brent and WTI look constructive on the charts, the RSI’s on both are at very overbought levels. This short-term indicator suggests that despite the confidence in the market, they could be vulnerable to a near-term downside correction. Possibly quite an aggressive one.

Brent Crude climbed 35 cents to close at 60.95 in New York, rising a further 15 cents to 61.10 in early Asia. Brent has a well denoted triple bottom at 60.20 which should form strong support initially. Below this, we see 60.00 and then 59.00 as the next supports. Resistance is at 62.00 with little on the charts beyond there. We assume that more selling will appear at the 63.00 area.

Brent Crude Daily

WTI spot climbed 50 cents to close at 54.55 in New York as U.S. exports hit record highs and have drifted 10 cents higher to 54.65 in early Asian trading. WTI has a congestion zone of a series of daily lows between 53.50 and 53.70 that will lend reasonable support initially. Below here lies the daily uptrend support line at 52.90 with a break opening a drop to 52.00. Resistance is at 55.00 with a break clearing the path to the 56.50 regions.

WTI Daily

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Will Brent Crude Turn 60?

Saudi rhetoric sees Brent in sight of $60.00 a barrel but is the rally in oil puffed up on talk or fundamentals?

Oil raced higher overnight with Brent finishing in sight of the magical 60.00 a barrel mark, spurred on by Saudi remarks supporting the oil production cut through to the end of 2018. Brent climbed 1.75% to close at 59.50. Meanwhile, WTI also managed to post a respectable 1.30% rally of its own to finish the New York session at 52.55. With Brent spot at two-year highs and the prompt futures in backwardation, the stage would appear set for an attempt higher. The 60.00 region will be a formidable obstacle, and it remains to be seen if oil can sustain these levels on the back of Russian and Saudi talk alone.

Brent

Brent spot has drifted 15 cents lower in early Asia to 59.35 as some profit taking has set in. Nearby support lies at 59.00 and 58.65, and the overnight high of 59.55, the first hurdle. We expect 60.00 to have substantial selling interest from producer hedging initially. A break, however, opens up a considerable amount of clear air on the charts with no notable resistance until the 68.00 regions. A daily close above 60.00 will set an interesting scene from a technical perspective.

Brent Daily

WTI

WTI spot lagged Brent overnight, weighed down by high inventory numbers and surging production. It too has seen some early Asia profit taking, drifting 10 cents lower to 52.45 although still very close to its New York highs. Trendline support appears at 51.90 followed by the 51.00 regions. Above here lies a substantial region of resistance between 53.50 and 54.50. This area capped all of the attempted rallies from the end of 2016 through all of quarter one of 2017. Given the amount of producer hedging around it will likely prove a very tough nut to crack initially. It may be assisted by the Baker Hughes Rig Count if it shows a significant drop this evening.

WTI Daily

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