AUD/USD stabilizing amid positive Australian, Chinese data

The Australian dollar was being carried down by the strength of the US dollar. The greenback enjoyed an upgrade to GDP, hopes for an approval on a tax cut, and also a relatively positive speech from Janet Yellen. Fortunately for the Aussie, it had some better-than-expected data of its own. Here are the key figures […]

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ETH/USD and ETH/BTC Technical Analysis November 30 2017

Hello and welcome to News BTC’s Market Outlook November.

ETH/USD

ethusd

Ethereum broke out during the trading session on Wednesday, clearing the $500 level. It now looks as if we are going to continue to find buyers in the Ethereum market on dips, and we should continue to go much higher. Given enough time, I believe that Ethereum will go looking towards the $550 level as the next logical round number. However, on the hourly chart we are crossing in the overbought part of the stochastic oscillator, and that of course suggest perhaps the pullback is coming before we move higher. Nonetheless, I remain bullish.

ETH/BTC

ethbtc

Ethereum also rallied against Bitcoin, but with Bitcoin skyrocketing over $1000 in the last 24 hours, it’s a most impossible to imagine going long against it. Because of this, I suspect that the 0.48 level is going to offer significant resistance, and we may very well pull back in the short term.

Thanks for watching, I’ll be back tomorrow.

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Oil Traders Get Ready To Sing O(PEC) Vienna

Vienna readies for OPEC decision day as markets see a final shuffling of the positioning chairs before today’s fireworks.

Crude oil had a very choppy session overnight as the street chased its tail back and forth on rumours and headlines ahead of today’s official OPEC meeting in Vienna. Both Brent and WTI traded in 2.50% ranges, but as the dust settled both contracts closed only slightly down on the day. Both were falling 30 cents to 63.05 and 57.25 respectively.

Asia has unsurprisingly, taken a look at the overnight ranges and concluded that things are best left well alone until where hear from OPEC and Non-OPEC later today. Both contracts trading uncaged in the early part of the session.

The technical outlook paints a somewhat darker picture though. Brent broke its short-term trendline on Monday and never recaptured it. It has now formed a formidable series of double tops above building strong resistance. WTI held its two-month trendline support overnight, barely staying above it this morning. The takeaway from this is that a nine-month extension of the production cut deal is priced in and anything less from Vienna today could see some uncontrolled spills in prices as long positioning runs for the exit door.

Brent

Brent Crude has double tops at 64.00, 64.45 and 64.85 to overcome now forming a serious zone of resistance to further rallies. Support is at 62.00, followed by the two-month trendline at 61.45 and then the crucial multiple daily lows 61.25 level.

Brent Crude Daily

WTI

WTI has resistance at yesterday’s high at 58.25 followed by its double top at 58.85. Much more importantly, it lies just above its two-month trendline support at 56.80. Yesterday’s low at 56.60 is just behind to offer interim support, but after that, the charts open up with no technical support until 54.80.

WTI Crude Daily

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GBP support continues; GBPUSD eyeing 1.35

The US economy grew faster than initially expected for the third quarter. Data issued yesterday shows that the US economy has grown at annualized pace of 3.3% during the previous quarter. The stronger data has helped support for the USD that has managed to shrug off a 3-week sell off. So far this week the USD is in the positive, however may be too soon to call it a day as we look on to the US senate vote later this week. The vote is with regards to the much awaited tax bill.

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What Will OPEC Do Next?

Oils traders have been watching OPEC and OPEC+ meetings closely – even though their attempt to stifle oil production had been derailed, both by some of its own members and by the U.S. ramping up their own production to offset the slowing of production. Their intent was to slow production to diminish global crude reserves – bringing the price of oil up.

 

Although recently we have seen oil inch up and fall slightly today, Tuesday – Brent was trading at $63.34 and US light crude was trading at $57.61 – it seems that the OPEC+ 1.8 m barrels/day cut didn’t seem to as effective as they hoped. At this point and taking into consideration the impotence of the production cut agreement amongst the countries of the cartel, some market watchers are wonder whether the agreement will even be extended.

 

Analysts from Goldman Sachs are backing up this estimation, saying the outcome of the upcoming meetings are uncertain. The biggest factor some people are noting is the negative impact the cuts had on the Russian economy in October – Russia being the world’s biggest crude producer. Ironically the recent oil price peak, with its high on Friday at $59.05, wasn’t a result of the OPEC cuts but the temporary shut down of the main crude pipeline between Canada and the US named Keystone.

 

Even if everything goes OPEC’s way and even Russia agrees to an extension, the US and its non-cartel counterparts will inevitably ramp-up output, like they did previously, much like in September when oil prices were stuck between the $45 – $50/barrel mark. This is largely attributed to the increase in Shale extracting, which reached peak production as OPEC’s efforts to cut production fell flat.

 

There is also side-ways effects, although superficially higher oil prices should benefit producers, prices that are too high tend to stifle demand as people seek alternatives to fossil fuels. For example electric cars have lost a big part of their market share due to the recent drop in oil prices. Another layer to this complex hydrocarbon cake, is the fact that higher prices instigate increased production and the danger for another implosion of the price.

 

It is a very good estimation at this point that the next OPEC meeting will be a negotiation between Russia and the ad-hoc head of OPEC Saudi Arabia in the hopes that they can reach a compromise, which ultimately sees Moscow back the agreement. Some estimate that even without the backing of Russia, OPEC will still go forward with the cuts extending them well into 2018. With Russia and most of the America’s producing at normal capacity or even more – these cuts are likely to be ineffectual.

 

It seems at this point that Saudi is more preoccupied with Russia than it is about its frictions with Iran. Ironically it seems that markets have the same mentality even though a conflict between these two countries could potential cause an increase in oil prices (due to a drop in production or the damage caused by arm conflict to oil facilities).

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