CAC Climbs on Strong German, Eurozone GDP Reports

The CAC index has posted strong gains in the Wednesday session. Currently, the index is at 5,155.30, up 0.91% on the day. It’s a busy day on the release front, with key releases in Germany, the eurozone and the US. In Germany Preliminary GDP posted a gain of 0.6%, matching the estimate. Eurozone Flash GDP for Q4 remained steady at 0.6% for a third straight quarter, matching the estimate. In the US, the markets are expecting mixed inflation numbers. Core CPI is expected to expected to edge lower to 0.2%, while CPI is forecast to improve to 0.1%.

It’s been a rough ride for the CAC, which declined 3.6% last week and has plunged 6.9% so far this month. However, the index has steadied this week, and is in green territory on Wednesday. The CAC is up almost 1%, and the strong gains have been pared by sharp losses in the banking sector, as Credit Agricole is down 3.33%. Much of the recent sell-off can be attributed to investor concern over higher inflation in the US, which could lead to raise hikes from the Federal Reserve and other central banks. Inflation has also moved higher in the eurozone, although with plenty of slack in the economy, the ECB is not contemplating any rate hikes. Investors across the globe, who endured a massive sell-off last week, will be keeping a close eye on US inflation indicators. If these releases are higher than expected, global stock markets could resume their downward spiral.

ECB President Mario Draghi said last week that he is more confident that eurozone inflation is moving closer to the ECB target of just below 2 percent, due to improving economic growth. However, Draghi listed currency market volatility as an obstacle to the inflation target, and added that the ECB would carefully monitor the euro’s exchange rates. Draghi’s concerns about the exchange rate have been underscored by last week’s stock market turbulence, which boosted the dollar and sent the euro lower by 1.6 percent. The ECB tapered its massive stimulus program from EUR 60 billion to 30 billion/mth in January, and the markets are looking for hints as to whether the ECB will normalize policy and wind up stimulus in September.

Economic Calendar

Wednesday (February 14)

  • 5:00 Eurozone Flash GDP. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 0.6%
  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%

Thursday (February 15)

  • 5:00 Eurozone Trade Balance. Estimate 22.4B

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

CAC, Wednesday, February 14 at 2:25 EDT

Open: 5,131.50 High: 5,158.50 Low: 5,127.80 Close: 5,155.30

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

DAX Gains Ground on German, Eurozone Growth

The DAX index has posted losses in the Wednesday session. Currently, the index is trading at 12,277.50, up 0.67% since the Tuesday close. In Germany, Preliminary GDP slowed in the fourth quarter to 0.6%, but still matched the estimate. Final CPI declined 0.7%, also matching the forecast. Eurozone Flash GDP for Q4 remained steady at 0.6% for a third straight quarter, matching the estimate. In the US, the markets are expecting mixed inflation numbers. Core CPI is expected to expected to edge lower to 0.2%, while CPI is forecast to improve to 0.1%.

European markets have given a thumbs-up to German and Eurozone GDP reports. Both indicators showed respectable gains of 0.6% in the fourth quarter. On an annual basis, Eurozone GDP was up by 2.7%, underscoring the strong rebound in the eurozone economy in 2017. The DAX is marginally higher last week, after sliding 7.6% last week. In the banking sector, stocks are in green territory on Wednesday. Commerzbank has posted strong gains of 1.24%, and Deutsche Bank has gained 0.24%.

Investors across the globe, who endured a massive sell-off last week, will be keeping a close eye on US inflation indicators. Concern over higher inflation and additional rate hikes was a catalyst to the volatility in the stock markets, and any whiff of higher consumer inflation could again spook investors and send the markets into a tailspin. The new head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, sought to send a reassuring message on Tuesday, saying that the Fed is on alert to any risks to financial stability. However, it is clear that the Fed’s hand is limited when it comes to stock markets moves, and the volatility which we saw last week could resume at any time.

Economic Calendar

Wednesday (February 14)

  • 2:00 German Preliminary GDP. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 0.6%
  • 2:00 German Final CPI. Estimate -0.7%. Actual -0.7%
  • 3:00 German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
  • 5:00 Eurozone Flash GDP. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 0.6%
  • Tentative – German 30-year Bond Auction
  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%

Thursday (February 15)

  • 5:00 Eurozone Trade Balance. Estimate 22.4B

*All release times are EST

*Key events are in bold

DAX, Wednesday, February 14 at 6:35 EDT

Open: 12,315.50 High: 12,318.46 Low: 12,263.50 Close: 12,277.50

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

EUR/USD – Euro Unchanged as German GDP, CPI Matches Forecasts

The euro has shown some movement in both directions but is unchanged in the Wednesday session.  Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2356, up 0.04% on the day. It’s a busy day for fundamentals, with key releases out of the eurozone and the US. In Germany, Preliminary GDP slowed to 0.6% in the fourth quarter, matching the estimate. Final CPI declined 0.7%, also matching the forecast. Eurozone Flash GDP for Q4 remained steady at 0.6% for a third straight quarter, matching the estimate. In the US, the markets are expecting mixed inflation numbers. Core CPI is expected to expected to edge lower to 0.2%, while CPI is forecast to improve to 0.1%. The US will also release retail sales reports. Retail Sales is forecast to slow to 0.2%, while Core CPI is forecast to accelerate to 0.5%. Traders should be prepared for movement from EUR/USD during the North American session.

The stock market sell-off has triggered some volatility in the currency markets, and this is causing concern at the ECB. Last week, ECB President Mario Draghi said that he is more confident that eurozone inflation is moving closer to the Bank’s target of just below 2 percent, due to improving economic growth. However, Draghi listed currency market volatility as an obstacle to the inflation target, and added that the ECB would carefully monitor the euro’s exchange rates. Draghi’s concerns about the exchange rate are likely even stronger, after the euro fell 1.6 percent last week. The ECB tapered its massive stimulus program from EUR 60 billion to 30 billion/mth in January, and the markets are on the lookout for hints as to whether the ECB will normalize policy and wind up stimulus in September.

Global stock markets have steadied after last week’s turbulence, but investors remain wary. Wednesday’s US inflation numbers will be closely watched, as inflation fears was a key catalyst of the massive sell-off. The new head of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, sought to send a reassuring message on Tuesday, saying that the Fed is on alert to any risks to financial stability. However, it is clear that the Fed’s hand is limited when it comes to stock markets moves, and the volatility which we saw last week could resume at any time.

The day of reckoning

 

EUR/USD Fundamentals

Wednesday (February 14)

  • 2:00 German Preliminary GDP. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 0.6%
  • 2:00 German Final CPI. Estimate -0.7%. Actual -0.7%
  • 3:00 German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
  • 4:00 Italian Preliminary GDP. Estimate 0.4%. Actual 0.3%
  • 5:00 Eurozone Flash GDP. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 0.6%
  • 5:00 US Industrial Production. Estimate 0.1%. Actual 0.4%
  • Tentative – German 30-year Bond Auction
  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.5%
  • 10:00 US Business Inventories. Estimate 0.3%
  • 10:30 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 2.8M

Thursday (February 15)

  • 5:00 Eurozone Trade Balance. Estimate 22.4B
  • 8:30 US PPI. Estimate 0.4%
  • 8:30 US Empire State Manufacturing Index. Estimate 17.7
  • 8:30 US Philly Fed Manufacturing Index. Estimate 21.5
  • 8:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 229K

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

 

EUR/USD for Wednesday, February 14, 2018

EUR/USD for February 14 at 6:00 EDT

Open: 1.2351 High: 1.2393 Low: 1.2346 Close: 1.2356

 

EUR/USD Technical

S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2092 1.2200 1.2286 1.2357 1.2481 1.2569

EUR/USD inched higher in the Asian session and has retracted in European trade

  • 1.2286 is providing support
  • 1.2357 was tested earlier in resistance and is under strong pressure

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2286, 1.2200, 1.2092 and 1.1961
  • Above: 1.2357, 1.2481 and 1.2569
  • Current range: 1.2286 to 1.2357

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

EUR/USD ratio is almost unchanged in the Wednesday session. Currently, short positions have a majority (54%), indicative of EUR/USD breaking out and moving lower.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.

US Dollar Rout Continues With Inflation Data in the Horizon

Safe haven flows after the stock market collapse favour JPY and CHF

The US dollar is once again on the back foot on Tuesday. The currency is softer against major pairs ahead of key US inflation data for January. The U.S. Federal Reserve along with traders will be looking at the consumer price figures for signs of higher inflation and further validations of their plans to keep raising US interest rates in 2018. The U.S. non farm payrolls (NFP) report earlier in the month boosted the USD with a positive wage growth signal at 0.3 percent monthly gain. The market will be watching the core CPI released on Wednesday, February 14 at 8:30 am EST looking for confirmation.

  • US January inflation expected to underperform
  • US Oil producers putting downward pressure on prices
  • US inflation trend to continue on Thursday with the release of the PPI



The EUR/USD gained 0.52 percent on Tuesday. The single currency is trading at 1.2355 ahead of the release of monthly inflation and retail sales data in the US. The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to lift rates 3 or more times this year, but to do so it would need inflation in the US to pick up, as this was the biggest debate within the central bank last year. Doves within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) are pushing for more patience, until inflation rises, while the hawks who lost Chair Yellen as their biggest supporter would rather raise rates sooner rather than later. The core consumer price index, the Fed pays more attention to this data point that excludes food and energy, is expected to come in at 0.2 percent. Retail sales are forecasted to have gained 0.2 percent in January, but the core reading to have advanced by 0.5 percent by removing auto sales.

The tumble in stocks prices has had a negative effect on the confidence in the US economy. The employment report released on February 2 posted higher than forecasted number of jobs and more importantly hourly wages rose by 0.3 percent. Several dollar rallies that started with a strong employment report have been cut short by disappointing inflation and retail sales data. This time around the USD has not been able to find solid footing in 2018. With a stock market correction and bond yields at four year highs inflation takes a more important role as it could solidify the case of Fed hawks and make way for a 4 rate hike scenario. The USD has been impacted by improving growth around the globe and other central banks have hiked or signalled and end to low rates cutting the lead of the U.S. Federal Reserve and reducing the attractiveness of the dollar. A higher than expected inflation figure could trigger a US currency recovery alongside a drop in the stock market as higher rates would be forthcoming. Vice versa a lower than expected consumer price gain could sink the dollar even lower as the market is already pricing in 3 rate hikes and could start reevaluating that position with weak inflationary pressures.

European politics have reached some stability with the German coalition now in place but with the upcoming Italian elections in March the boat is sure to rock. Economic fundamentals have been strong in the eurozone with Germany leading the way as usual. The gap between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) is closing with regarding monetary policy. The ECB is expected to end its QE program and could even lift interest rates later this year. The week will bring minor indicator releases in Europe with the German central bank chief Jens Weidmann speaking in Frankfurt on Wednesday, February 14 at 3:00 am EST. Earlier that day the GDP figures for Germany will be released with a 0.6 percent growth expected.



The USD/JPY lost 0.84 percent in the last 24 hours. The currency pair is trading at 107.73 as the JPY has benefited from risk aversion and risk appetite moves. Usually the USD is the main beneficiary of a risk aversion move, but given some of the global uncertainty is happening in Washington and Wall Street the greenback is not the sturdiest safe haven for investors. The USD is soft ahead of inflation and retail sales data with both having to overcome concerns.

The Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expected to reappoint Haruhiko Kuroda as the head of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) for his second term and that in itself could be a sign the central bank is ready to start dealing back some of its massive stimulus program.

Market events to watch this week:

Wednesday, February 14
8:30am USD CPI m/m
8:30am USD Core CPI m/m
8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m
8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories
7:30pm AUD Employment Change
Thursday, February 15
8:30am USD PPI m/m
Friday, February 16
4:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m
8:30am USD Building Permits

*All times EDT
For a complete list of scheduled events in the forex market visit the MarketPulse Economic Calendar

USD/CAD – Canadian Dollar Trading Sideways

The Canadian dollar continues to have an uneventful week. In the Tuesday’s session, the pair is trading at 1.2587, up 0.07% on the day. On the release front, there are no Canadian indicators on the schedule. In the US, the sole indicator is the NFIB Small Business Index, which improved to 106.9, above the estimate of 106.2 points. On Wednesday the US releases CPI and retail sales indicators. Traders should be prepared for movement from USD/CAD during the North American session.

Last week’s market selloff boosted the US dollar, at the expense of the Canadian dollar and most other major currencies. The Canadian dollar dropped 1.2% last week, and is down 2.2% in February, erasing the gains we saw in January. Interestingly, the catalyst for the current turbulence has been solid economic data in the US, namely, improved payrolls and wage growth reports. Is the correction over? It’s too early too tell, since much of the sell-off is related to investor concerns over possible interest rate hikes by major central banks. The Bank of England has said it could accelerate its pace of hikes, and the Federal Reserve could follow suit if inflation moves higher.

It’s been a rough February for the Canadian dollar, which has declined 2.4%. The loonie was hurt by last week’s massive sell-off in the stock markets, as nervous investors lost their risk appetite and scurried away from minor currencies such as the Canadian dollar. However, the country’s economic fundamentals remain solid, and the Bank of Canada is expected to raise rates twice more this year, after hiking rates in January. If oil prices remain high and the economy remains strong, there is room for the Canadian dollar to gain ground.

Canadian employment growth has impressed in recent months, but the trend reversed sharply in January. Employment Change plunged by 88.0 thousand, well off the estimate of +10.3 thousand. The unemployment rate climbed from 5.7% to 5.9%, missing the estimate of 5.8%. The Canadian dollar reacted on Friday with losses, but managed to recover and ended the Friday session almost unchanged.

USD/CAD Fundamentals

Tuesday (February 13)

  • 6:00 US NFIB Small Business Index. Estimate 106.2. Actual 106.9
  • 8:00 US FOMC Member Loretta Mester Speaks

Wednesday (February 14)

  • 8:30 US CPI. Estimate 0.3%
  • 8:30 US Core CPI. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Core Retail Sales. Estimate 0.2%
  • 8:30 US Retail Sales. Estimate 0.5%

*All release times are GMT

*Key events are in bold

USD/CAD for Tuesday, February 13, 2018

USD/CAD, February 13 at 8:05 EST

Open: 1.2577 High: 1.2594 Low: 1.2566 Close: 1.2587

USD/CAD Technical

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2190 1.2351 1.2494 1.2630 1.2757 1.2855

USD/CAD was flat in the Asian session and has posted limited movement in the European session

  • 1.2494 is providing support
  • 1.2630 is providing resistance
  • Current range: 1.2494 to 1.2630

Further levels in both directions:

  • Below: 1.2494, 1.2351, 1.2190 and 1.2060
  • Above: 1.2630, 1.2757 and 1.2855

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio

USD/CAD ratio is almost unchanged in the Tuesday session. Currently, long and short positions are evenly split, indicative of a lack of trader bias towards as to what direction USD/CAD takes next.

This article is for general information purposes only. It is not investment advice or a solution to buy or sell securities. Opinions are the authors; not necessarily that of OANDA Corporation or any of its affiliates, subsidiaries, officers or directors. Leveraged trading is high risk and not suitable for all. You could lose all of your deposited funds.